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The global economy is on track to grow slightly above 3% in calendar year 2024 (CY24), similar to last year, but with a more favourable combination of financial conditions and easing inflation. Normalisation of cost inflation is proceeding at a staggered pace across the ex-China world, with “last-mile” challenges evident in many jurisdictions.

Major economies are expected to continue to diverge in their growth outlooks, with developed economies facing less of a drag from higher interest rates, China experiencing an uneven recovery among its end-use sectors, and India likely to continue as the fastest growing major economy. Geopolitical risks remain elevated in the near term.

Metals have outperformed steelmaking raw materials on price in the first half of CY24. After the price decline in the first quarter of the calendar year, iron ore and steelmaking coal have been trading within relatively narrow ranges since. Copper has performed well, with a notable run-up in May on anticipated tight fundamentals and easing global financing conditions. However, most commodities have been retreating since then on worries of softening end-use demand and rising stock levels.



We expect volatility in commodity markets to continue over the next 18 months, with a general trend of rising stocks across steel-making raw materials and the non-ferrous industries. Having updated our expectations for near–term supply–demand balances (where a surplus means rising inventories and a deficit means inventories are running down), we now forecast the following: refined copper is expected to move towards a marginal surplus, alongside a very tight situation in copper concentrate. We continue to see a sizable but narrowing surplus in nickel. We now anticipate a widening surplus in the iron ore market on average across CY24, with supply likely to continue to outpace demand into CY25. We see a mild surplus for all seaborne steelmaking coals across CY24, but the supply of higher quality coals remains moderately tighter than the market as a whole. The global potash market is close to emerging from the dramatic events of recent years and balance is in sight.

Beyond the immediate horizon, we see copper pricing moving into a phase of durable outperformance, while steel-making raw materials are expected to enter an era of adjustment. The conclusion of China’s crude steel plateau phase, India’s rapid steel capacity growth, new entrants in iron ore seaborne trade, uncertain operational performance in steelmaking coal, and the complexities that will come with greater efforts to decarbonise, will all have an influence on steel value chain trade flows. We expect potash to continue to benefit from the intersection of rising population, improving living standards and changing diets.

We remain optimistic that the basic elements of our positive long–term view remain in place.

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https://www.bhp.com/investors/economic-and-commodity-outlook/2024/08/bhps-economic-and-commodity-outlook