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Beleggingsadvies 20/10/2005 11:07
Latest Monthly Updates to ISSB’s Global Trade Database
Current trade data availability for the 6 top trading countries.
Germany Aug UK Aug Russia Jun
USA Aug China Aug Japan Aug
Updated: 19/10/05

Steel Statistics in the News
Global Crude Steel Production 2005
Global production in the first 9 months 2005 was 6.3% up on the same period 2004, sustained by China where production increased by 27.4% and India which increased by 14.6%. Without China and India, global production is down 1.8% year-on-year.

If this rate is maintained for the rest of the year, global crude steel production for 2005 would reach 1125 million tonnes, the highest level ever, to surpass 2004's previous record high of 1056 million tonnes.

China Watch
Steel Production
In the first 8 months 2005 steel production in China was 28% up on the same period last year. With 272 million tonnes in 2004 it is possible that Chinese production in 2005 could reach 330 million tonnes.

Steel Imports
Imports fell sharply in 2004 but have tended to rise again in recent months. Imports had previously risen significantly in 2003 to reach 43 million tonnes then fell during 2004 to 33 million tonnes. In the first 8 months 2005 imports were 18.5 million tonnes compared to 25.7 million tonnes in the same period last year - a decrease of 28%.

Steel Exports
Exports started to grow dramatically during 2004 to reach 20 million tonnes compared with 8 million in 2003. Since September 2004 exports have exceeded imports to make China a net steel exporter although this was reversed in July. In the first 8 months 2005 exports were 20.2 million tonnes compared to 9.3 million tonnes in the same period last year. August exports fell significantly to their lowest since June 2004.

US Watch
The US, which is a tradional steel importer, recorded imports of 20.3 million metric tonnes in the first 8 months 2005 up only 0.1% on the same period last year. Key imported products were semis (4.1mt), hot rolled coil (2.4mt), welded tubes (2.4mt) and wire rod (2.0mt). Key supplying countries include fellow NAFTA members Canada (3.6mt) and Mexico (2.7mt) followed by Brazil (1.8mt) and China (1.6mt).

It is possible that US steel imports for year 2005 may surpass those in 2004 which, at 32.8mt, were themselves up by over 50% on 2003. The highest recorded annual imports were 1998's 38.5 million tonnes.

EU Watch
In the latest detailed figures for the EU25 (first 4 months 2005) imports rose to 11.2mt (compared to 7.7mt in the same period last year) This transformed the EU25 into a net steel importer of 1.7mt when, in the same period last year, the EU25 was a net steel exporter by 2.7mt.

Key products imported by the EU include semis, hot rolled coil, wire rod, galvanised sheet, hr plates and CR sheet. Key import sources include Russia (2.2mt), Turkey (1.2mt), Ukraine (1.1mt), China (0.9mt), India (0.6mt) and Brazil (0.5mt). In the first 4 months EU25 imports from both China and India have grown 5 fold.

Global Steel Trade
A new record high was set for world trade in steel which grew 8% in 2004 to 262 million tonnes (excluding internal trade within the European Union).

The largest steel exporting countries in 2004 were Japan (34.8 million tonnes), the EU15 (31.8), Russia (30.4), Ukraine (28.2) and, entering the top 5 for the first time, China (20.0).

Conversely, the largest steel importing countries in 2004 were China (33.2 million tonnes), USA (32.8), the EU15 (30.4) and South Korea (17.7)

Global Iron Ore Trade
Imports by the world's steelmaking countries grew by 12% in 2004 to reach 650 million tonnes compared to 2003's 580 million tonnes. The largest importing countries were China (208 million tonnes), the EU15 (145 million tonnes) and Japan (135 million tonnes). The major exporters in 2004 were Brazil (237 million tonnes) and Australia (210 million tonnes).

In the first half year 2005, imports of iron ore by China shot up to 131 million tonnes, an increase of one-third on the 98mt imported in the first half of last year. Imports from India, at 37 million tonnes, were up by 10mt year-on-year which means that imports from India have increased tenfold since 1998.

Imports into China from Australia in the first six months 2005 were 52.5mt - an increase of 20mt on the same period last year while imports from Brazil, at 25mt, were up by 4.5mt. The current split of Chinese imports by country of origin shows that Australia supplied 40%, India 28% and Brazil 19%, with other countries such as South Africa accounting for the remaining 13%.

Australia's total exports or iron ore so far this year rose by 18% on the same period last year, with virtually all of the increase going into the Chinese market. Brazil shipped 105 million tonnes in the first half-year, an increase of 11% over last year, including an extra 4mt to the EU and an extra 6mt to Asian markets.

Global Scrap Trade
International trade in ferrous scrap reached 93 million tonnes in 2004 - an increase of 15% on 2003's 81.2 million tonnes. Global trade also grew in dri/hbi which reached 8.5 million tonnes in 2004 and in merchant iron which grew to 17.1 million tonnes.
Added: 19/10/05
From ISSB World Steel Statistics Monthly - October 2005
Crude steel production in August was estimated to be 91.4 million tonnes, according to the 61 countries reporting to the IISI, an increase of 6.1% over August 2004. The total for the first eight months of 2005 was 729.0 million tonnes, 6.9% up on the same period in 2004. However, excluding China, the August total fell by 1.8%, and the year to date was down 0.5%.
Added: 04/10/05




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